By Steve Denning, Carlota Pérez – To simplify and summarize: there have been five technological revolutions over the last 240 years.
What’s interesting for us today is that the historical record reveals a regular pattern in the diffusion process. It takes place in two halves. First, we have the rise of the new technology that occurs during the decline of the previous revolution. It’s like the 1980s, when we had inflation with the old technologies, which were yielding decreasing returns, while the information technology companies were growing fast with steadily increasing returns (and decreasing prices).
That first half is the installation period of the new technology, which leads to and ends with one or more bubble prosperities –as in the late 1990s and mid-2000s– when the financial sector and the casino economy take over.
Then the bubble or bubbles burst and we have a recession, as we have now, that might last anywhere from 2 years to 13 years or more.
Now in 2017, we are in the middle of another turning point, as in the 1930s, and we could have a period of sustained global prosperity if appropriate action is taken. more>