15 middle-class jobs that can’t be automated—a CBR thought experiment
By Howard R. Gold – A much-publicized 2013 study by Oxford University researchers Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne estimates that “about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk” from advances in computerization, particularly machine learning, robotics, and artificial intelligence. Using US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Frey and Osborne rated 702 occupations on a scale of 0 to 100 percent for risk of displacement by emerging computer technologies. Workers in heavily blue-collar industries such as production, construction, transportation, maintenance and repair, and farming and fisheries face the highest risk, along with white-collar employees in service and sales.
The job categories at lowest risk, according to Frey and Osborne: management; computer, engineering, and science; education, legal, arts, and media; and, of course, health care. The latter accounted for half of the 20 occupations to which Frey and Osborne give the lowest probability of replacement by computerization.
Core skills such as “originality,” “social perceptiveness,” “assisting and caring for others,” “persuasion,” and ”negotiation” are the most difficult for computers to replicate, Frey and Osborne determine. (For more, see “If robots take our jobs, will they make it up to us?” July 2017.) more>
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