Coronavirus: Implications for the semiconductor industry
The coronavirus is shifting demand patterns for major semiconductor end markets. How will these changes ultimately affect the semiconductor industry, and how can leaders respond?
By Harald Bauer, Ondrej Burkacky, Peter Kenevan, Abhijit Mahindroo, and Mark Patel – Despite ongoing quarantines, shelter-in-place orders, and other stringent measures, COVID-19 has continued to spread. As deaths climb and the human toll mounts, leaders are focused on containing the virus and saving lives. In parallel, efforts are under way to mitigate the devastating economic consequences of COVID-19, which include business shutdowns, record unemployment, and unprecedented drops in gross domestic product (GDP) across many countries.
The semiconductor industry, which has historically been a major source of high-tech jobs, is among the many sectors that have had to adjust their production planning and operations as COVID-19 shifts demand for major semiconductor end applications. In addition to exploring the impact of such changes on semiconductor demand, this article provides insights about the industry’s evolution post-crisis and outlines how semiconductor leaders should prepare themselves for the next normal.
The COVID-19 crisis is unprecedented in our time. While the recession during the financial crisis from 2007 to 2008 was driven by stagnating consumer demand, the COVID-19 situation induced a shock to both global demand and supply, creating a dual challenge. This unique phenomenon makes it difficult to extrapolate from past crises to make predictions.
Nevertheless, this article aims to provide guidance on how semiconductor demand will shift in the short- and mid-term—taking into account extensive surveys, research on the recovering Chinese market, and global GDP projections. Our GDP projections in this article are based on two of the nine scenarios that McKinsey developed for global GDP recovery, both of which assume that the spread of coronavirus is eventually controlled and catastrophic economic damage is avoided. In the first scenario, global GDP recovers in the fourth quarter of 2020; in the second, recovery is delayed until late 2022. more>
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