Category Archives: Education

China, America, and the International Order after the Pandemic

By Mira Rapp-Hooper – As people around the world fall ill, global markets convulse, and supply chains collapse, COVID-19 may also reorder international politics as we know it. No analyst can know when this crisis will end, much less divine the world we will meet at its conclusion. But as scholars have begun to note, it is plausible that China will emerge from the wreckage as more of a global leader than it began.

Following World War II, the United States was a chief architect of the so-called liberal international order and became its uncontested leader with the Cold War’s end. China, with its breathtaking economic growth and vast increases in military spending, has been on the ascent for decades, but long remained focused on domestic stability and the security of the Chinese Communist Party. It clambered to center stage after 2008, when the global financial crisis appeared to signal a weakening of American primacy.

China and others took the American financial stumble as a blunder of democratic capitalism, and a moment of opportunity to advance their own agendas. Under Xi Jinping, Beijing has seen the last decade as a period of “strategic opportunity” — one it did not necessarily expect to last, as it faces its own expected economic and demographic slowdowns. It built military bases in the South China Sea in contravention of international law, launched the vast and opaque Belt and Road Initiative to spread economic and political influence, doubled down on the state’s role in the economy and prejudicial policies, and coopted international human rights bodies. Along the way, it began to develop its own global governance aspirations and visions.

With the election of Donald Trump, the United States widened Beijing’s window of opportunity with its self-inflicted political convulsion. To China’s great fortune, American foreign policy was now expressly hostile to multilateral institutions, bellicose on trade, and defined national security in terms of narrow, homeland defense. To experts in the United States and abroad this looked like a willing abdication of the system the United States had constructed and led. But alongside these fears, and in another significant shift, foreign policy thinkers from both major parties increasingly agreed that the United States and China had entered a period of a great-power competition, in part, over the future of the international order and which power would set its terms.

Alone, the United States could not hope to match China’s economic and military heft in Asia. With allies by its side, America could remain peerless and manage peaceful change. Narrow unilateralism stoked renewed perceptions of further American decline and attenuated an otherwise favorable balance of power.

Enter the novel coronavirus.

It should be stunning that a virus that originated in China and spread in part due to Chinese government mismanagement may reorder the world to Beijing’s advantage, as Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi have argued. more>

Updates from McKinsey

We’re not going back to the ‘normal’ we had before coronavirus
Our global managing partner Kevin Sneader joined Andrew Ross Sorkin on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Wednesday, March 25, to talk live about the business implications of the coronavirus pandemic. The full interview is available now at CNBC.com. You can read all of our material on the crisis at our coronavirus insights page.
By Kevin Sneader – One thing is clear from all the conversations I’ve had: nothing is going to be the same. This is a new normal, a different way of operating.

I think for our clients, they’re worried about their employees, their customers, and cash—in that order. And they are worried about cash. Even in the health care sector, there are providers who are not getting paid right now, and they’re worried about cash flow just as players in several other sectors are.

Another reality they’re all dealing with is that people keep sending them scenarios as to how this could play out. The message we’re hearing is that the scenarios are helpful, but leaders are wondering what’s going to be true across all these scenarios. Because if it’s not going back to the way it was before, what’s the next normal? What’s the way in which we’re going to have to operate?

The reality is that consumer behavior is changing fundamentally, and so much else is changing, and the question is, “will it go back?” I think the answer in many cases is “no.”

If you think about a lot of what’s happened in the last few years, some of it’s going to be reinforced. The shift [to working] online has now been given a boost, and it’s hard to see that being taken back to where it was before.

At the same time, I think one of the biggest shifts will be the way that products reach us. For many years, we and others have been focused on efficiency: how efficiently can I run my supply chain? I think now there’s going to be a lot of conversation about, how resilient is my supply chain? more>

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Updates from ITU

How can we ensure safety and public trust​ in AI for automated and assisted driving?
ITU News – Cars are becoming increasingly automated. Drivers already benefit from a wide range of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), such as lane keeping, adaptive cruise control, collision warning, and blind spot warning, which are gradually becoming standard features on most vehicles.

Today’s automated systems are taking over an increasing amount of responsibility for the driving task. It is expected that soon, sensors will take the place of human impulse, and artificial intelligence (AI) will substitute for human intelligence.

This process is defined through various level steps, from low levels of automation where the driver retains overall control of the vehicle in level 1, to a fully-autonomous system in level 5.

10 years ago, manufacturers predicted many cars on today’s roads would be fully automated, but it still remains a distant future for the automotive industry. At the recent Future Networked Car Symposium 2020 at ITU Headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, top experts joined a panel entitled ‘AI for autonomous and assisted driving – how to ensure safety and public trust’ to discuss the progress and the prospects for vehicles that drive themselves – and how we might achieve this future. more>

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The rule of law is under duress everywhere

By Ted Piccone – Anyone paying attention to major events of the day in the United States and around the world would know that the basic social fabric is fraying from a toxic mix of ills — inequality, dislocation, polarization, environmental distress, scarce resources, and more. Signs abound that after decades of uneven but steady human progress, we are digging a deeper and muddier hole for ourselves. The principal reason for this pessimism is not the material facts of decline — we have lived through worse times before — but the crumbling consensus around how to overcome such crises. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic is fast becoming the latest stress test for whether the social contract can hold.

The roadmap for climbing out of the trough should begin with the understanding that the rule of law is the sine qua non of more successful societies. Societies with strong rule of law have built-in mechanisms for mediating conflicts through open and inclusive debate, in which all voices are treated equally, and outcomes are perceived as fair and reasonable.

Unfortunately, as documented by the latest findings of the World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index, the rule of law is declining around the world for the third year in a row. The trends are widespread and persistent: The majority of countries that declined in the 2020 rule of law scores also deteriorated in the previous year, and weaker or stagnating performance occurred in the majority of countries in every region and across every income group.

Of particular concern is that countries experienced the biggest declines over the past year in the areas of fundamental rights (54 countries declined, 29 improved), constraints on government powers (52 declined, 28 improved), and absence of corruption (51 declined, 26 improved). These three factors of the World Justice Project (WJP) Index saw the worst performance globally over a five-year time period as well.

In short, the key rule of law elements that undergird accountable governance, and relatedly, citizens’ trust in their leaders, are in retreat, in both established democracies like the United States, and in entrenched autocracies, from Russia to China to Venezuela. In this context, the rise of populist anger and social protests should come as little surprise. more>

Updates from McKinsey

COVID-19: Implications for business
By Matt Craven, Linda Liu, Mihir Mysore, and Matt Wilson – The coronavirus outbreak is first and foremost a human tragedy, affecting hundreds of thousands of people. It is also having a growing impact on the global economy.

At the time of writing, there have been more than 160,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 6,000 deaths from the disease. Older people, especially, are at risk. More than 140 countries and territories have reported cases; more than 80 have confirmed local transmission. Even as the number of new cases in China is falling (to less than 20, on some days), it is increasing exponentially in Italy (doubling approximately every four days). China’s share of new cases has dropped from more than 90 percent a month ago to less than 1 percent today.

Our perspective is based on our analysis of past emergencies and our industry expertise. It is only one view, however. Others could review the same facts and emerge with a different view.

Many countries now face the need to bring widespread community transmission of coronavirus under control. While every country’s response is unique, there are three archetypes emerging—two successful and one not—that offer valuable lessons. We present these archetypes while acknowledging that there is much still to be learned about local transmission dynamics and that other outcomes are possible:

  • Extraordinary measures to limit spread. After the devastating impact of COVID-19 became evident in the Hubei province, China imposed unprecedented measures—building hospitals in ten days, instituting a “lockdown” for almost 60 million people and significant restrictions for hundreds of millions of others, and using broad-based surveillance to ensure compliance—in an attempt to combat the spread. These measures have been successful in rapidly reducing transmission of the virus, even as the economy has been restarting.
  • Gradual control through effective use of public-health best practices. South Korea experienced rapid case-count growth in the first two weeks of its outbreak, from about 100 total cases on February 19 to more than 800 new cases on February 29. Since then, the number of new cases has dropped steadily, though not as steeply as in China. This was achieved through rigorous implementation of classic public-health tools, often integrating technology.
  • Unsuccessful initial control, leading to overwhelmed health systems. In some outbreaks where case growth has not been contained, hospital capacity has been overwhelmed. The disproportionate impact on healthcare workers and lack of flexibility in the system create a vicious cycle that makes it harder to bring the epidemic under control.

Based on new information that emerged last week, we have significantly updated and simplified our earlier scenarios. more>

Updates from Ciena

Single-wave 400G across 4,000km? Yes – with Ciena’s new Waveserver 5.
Ciena’s popular family of Waveserver products just got a new member – Waveserver 5. With tunable capacity up to 800G and support for 400GbE services at any distance, learn how Waveserver 5 is already setting new industry benchmarks – in live networks.

By Kent Jordan – Two mega-trends have been driving rapid innovation in optical networks. Advanced coherent technology brings the promise of greater network capacity, now reaching up to 800G across short links and 400G at distance. At the same time, new compact modular platforms promise greater density, reduced footprint and lower energy consumption.

What if you could combine this incredible performance and awesome density into one device? Sounds too good to be true, right?

Well not anymore. Ciena’s most advanced coherent technology, WaveLogicTM 5 Extreme, has arrived in the newest member of our Waveserver family of interconnect platforms: Waveserver 5. And, it’s bringing the performance you need, packaged in a compact and efficient footprint.

Combining the world’s most innovative coherent chipset with the simple, server-like operational model the Waveserver family is known for, Waveserver 5 provides network operators with industry-leading transport economics for high-capacity, high-growth applications.

Internet2 will be one of Ciena’s first customers to deploy Waveserver 5. They are building out their next-generation research and education (R&E) network across the U.S. and they have selected Ciena’s best, most flexible, open and highest-performance technologies to do the job. more>

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Updates from Adobe

Jimmie Robinson & the Teenage Heroes of East Oakland
By Jane Selle Morgan – Jimmie started this cover-to-cover practice as a kid, drawing what he saw on television. “I would create one scene,” he remembers, “and then I would create another scene, and I didn’t even know it, but I was creating sequential artwork at the time. I would staple them all together to make my own books.”

Jimmie is a California native who grew up in Oakland, so it tugged his hometown heart strings to learn that advocacy group ​Oakland Kids First was looking to produce an original comic book as part of a statewide initiative. Oakland Kids First wanted a​ fun and visually engaging community resource to communicate complicated issues that continue to oppress and challenge the everyday lives of the people of East Oakland—and the group needed an artist to bring it to life. ​Jimmie applied and was quickly chosen to illustrate the book.

In this ​mini-documentary​, you’ll meet Jimmie and hear about his process, while getting to know more about the perspective of Jimmie, Oakland Kids First, and the four high school kids sharing their experiences while collaborating on the Town Force One Comic Book. more>

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Hard truths about the eurozone crisis

There has been little honest reflection within the European Commission about the eurozone crisis. Until now.
By Adam Tooze – It is not often one finds European officials quoting significant moments from pop culture, let alone an outgoing director-general for economic and financial affairs—the European Commission’s most senior economics official—quoting Ridley Scott’s Blade Runner. But that is how Marco Buti introduces a recent piece summing up his period in office between 2008 and 2019.

Buti’s contribution is significant as personal reflection but also because it raises the more general question of how the EU and its institutions will commemorate the tenth anniversary of the eurozone crisis.

When it came to revisiting the global financial crisis, Brussels did not hold back. In August 2017, to mark the tenth anniversary of its onset, the commission issued a statement blaming the spillover to Europe on the United States and giving itself credit for prompt action to stave off the worst. The press release was however issued on August 9th—anniversary of the failure of the French bank Paribas’ US property funds.

Subprime and Lehman could be safely blamed on the US. What, however, will the European institutions make of the ten-year anniversary of the eurozone crisis and its various phases between 2010 and 2015?

Last year, addressing the European Parliament on the 20th anniversary of the introduction of the euro, the then commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, admitted there had been a lack of solidarity with Greece. He acknowledged there had been ‘reckless austerity’ (l’austérité irréfléchie). But he had the gall to suggest that the commission had succumbed to the influence of the International Monetary Fund, as though the agenda of austerity and ‘structural reform’ had been imposed from outside.

The traumatic history of the last ten years deserves better. more>

Updates from McKinsey

How to restart your stalled digital transformation
Most digital initiatives sputter before they take full effect. A new survey finds that organizations stand a good chance of recovering lost momentum because slowdowns typically happen for reasons within their control.
McKinsey – At organizations pursuing digital transformations, more than seven in ten survey respondents say the progress of these efforts has slowed or stalled at some point. In the latest McKinsey Global Survey on the topic, we set out to understand what organizations can do to prevent burnout or to restart their engines if burnout occurs during these transformations, which previous research has found have a lower success rate than do more traditional transformations. The good news is that in most cases, organizations can prevent or overcome a loss of momentum.

More than 60 percent of respondents who report stalled digital transformations attribute the problem to factors that—with the right discipline and focus—organizations can control in the near term to medium term. This finding runs counter to widespread assumptions that external pressures, such as market disruptions or regulatory changes, pose the biggest threats to digital initiatives. More commonly reported sources of derailed progress include resourcing issues, lack of clarity or alignment on a company’s digital strategy, and poor quality of the digital strategy to begin with.

If a digital transformation stalls, the results suggest that organizations can regain momentum by implementing rigorous change-management and internal-communications programs and clarifying the transformation’s projected impact, which can help build alignment and commitment. For scaling digital programs beyond the pilot phase—the first stumbling block in a transformation’s execution—clarity on the time frame and expected economic impact is important, as is partnering with operations. Should an intervention be needed to reenergize a transformation, having the CEO step in appears to be advantageous. Further lessons come from respondents at companies that avoid stalling in the first place. They often say their organizations maintain momentum by obtaining strong alignment and strategic clarity before a transformation gets under way. more>

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Updates from Siemens

Digitalization takes off in aerospace
By Indrakanti Chakravarthy – When you think about it, the basic mechanics behind aviation has remained the same throughout the decades.

Whether you’re talking about the B-52 Bomber from the mid-1950s. …The Concord SST that whisked folks across the Atlantic. …Or even the much-loved NASA Space Shuttle program. So many wonderful examples of how humans have taken flight over the years.

And here’s the thing – generations of engineers for the past 50 years or so have designed and built aircraft using pretty much the same methods and disciplines.

But all that’s about to change…

Today, with digitalization and the use of the digital twin for aircraft design, development and manufacturing – we are seeing a major shift on how modern aircraft are being designed and built. For the first time ever, the future of flight is boundless. There is no horizon on what we can or cannot do. [VIDEO] more>

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