Category Archives: Net

The Unwinnable Trade War

By Weijian Shan – There are at least two reasons why Chinese exports to the United States have not fallen as much as the Trump administration hoped they would. One is that there are no good substitutes for many of the products the United States imports from China, such as iPhones and consumer drones, so U.S. buyers are forced to absorb the tariffs in the form of higher prices.

The other reason is that despite recent headlines, much of the manufacturing of U.S.-bound goods isn’t leaving China anytime soon, since many companies depend on supply chains that exist only there. (In 2012, Apple attempted to move manufacturing of its high-end Mac Pro computer from China to Texas, but the difficulty of sourcing the tiny screws that hold it together prevented the relocation.)

Some export-oriented manufacturing is leaving China, but not for the United States. According to a May survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, fewer than six percent of U.S. businesses in China plan to return home. Sixty percent of U.S. companies said they would stay in China.

The damage to the economy on the import side is even more pronounced for the United States than it is for China. Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and elsewhere found that in 2018, the tariffs did not compel Chinese exporters to reduce their prices; instead, the full cost of the tariffs hit American consumers. As tariffs raise the prices of goods imported from China, U.S. consumers will opt to buy substitutes (when available) from other countries, which may be more expensive than the original Chinese imports but are cheaper than those same goods after the tariffs. The price difference between the pre-tariff Chinese imports and these third-country substitutes constitutes what economists call a “dead-weight loss” to the economy.

Beijing’s nimble calculations are well illustrated by the example of lobsters. China imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. lobsters in July 2018, precipitating a 70 percent drop in U.S. lobster exports. At the same time, Beijing cut tariffs on Canadian lobsters by three percent, and as a result, Canadian lobster exports to China doubled. Chinese consumers now pay less for lobsters imported from essentially the same waters.

The uncomfortable truth for Trump is that U.S. trade deficits don’t spring from the practices of U.S. trading partners; they come from the United States’ own spending habits.

The United States has run a persistent trade deficit since 1975, both overall and with most of its trading partners. Over the past 20 years, U.S. domestic expenditures have always exceeded GDP, resulting in negative net exports, or a trade deficit.

The shortfall has shifted over time but has remained between three and six percent of GDP. Trump wants to boost U.S. exports to trim the deficit, but trade wars inevitably invite retaliation that leads to significant reductions in exports.

Even a total Chinese capitulation in the trade war wouldn’t make a dent in the overall U.S. trade deficit. more>

Introducing Cybersecurity Insights: Director’s Corner

By Matthew Scholl – The Director’s Corner will highlight how NIST’s cybersecurity, privacy, and information security-related projects are making a difference in the field and leading the charge to make positive changes.

I believe the greatest accomplishment for the division, and what I am most proud of, is how we work globally — and the way we work in an open, transparent, and inclusive process. This is especially true in the development and standardization of cryptography. This process, coupled with NISTs technical excellence in crypto, results in NIST encryption used by commercial IT products across the world. This underlying encryption enables billions of dollars of electronic commerce to function­; such as swiping credit cards at the grocery store — to online purchases — to major financial exchanges.

As we look at 2020 and beyond, NIST will update our encryption standards and ensure that encryption will continue to enable the economy and protect our livelihood. The biggest thing coming in the future (that you will hear more and more about), is in the area of quantum resistant cryptography. NIST is building open, transparent, and inclusive encryption methods with our global partners for new sets of encryption that are needed when quantum computing becomes a reality.

Quantum computing is a completely new method and architecture of conducting computational activity (or way to generate information). When a quantum computer finally is strong enough, some of our current encryption will become vulnerable. Therefore, NIST is proactively working to create new encryption standards. more>

Updates from ITU

ITU Green Standards Week adopts Call to Action to accelerate transition to Smart Sustainable Cities
ITU News – ITU Green Standards Week has brought together governments, city leaders, businesses and citizens to share their experiences in driving the behavioral change required to achieve smart city objectives.

These participants have adopted a ‘Call to Action’ urging city stakeholders to accelerate the transition to Smart Sustainable Cities.

These participants have adopted a ‘Call to Action’ urging city stakeholders to accelerate the transition to Smart Sustainable Cities.

The Call to Action highlights that our cities – as powerful hubs of innovation, and a central force behind humanity’s impact on our environment – must make a defining contribution to the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). more>

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Obama’s Idealists

American Power in Theory and Practice
By Peter Beinart – In different ways, each book traces a narrative arc that begins with a vow, made in young adulthood, to use the United States’ might for good and ends with a sober realization about how hard fulfilling that vow actually is. For Rice, the arc begins with her failure, as a young NSC aide, to rouse the Clinton administration to halt the 1994 Rwandan genocide, after which she pledged “to go down fighting, if ever I saw another instance where I believed U.S. military intervention could . . . make a critical difference in saving large numbers of human lives.” For Power, it starts during her time as a war correspondent in Bosnia, where the besieged residents of Sarajevo asked her to “tell Clinton” about the horrors she had seen. For Rhodes, it begins with 9/11 and the Iraq war, which left him yearning to harness the idealism he felt the Bush administration had squandered.

In each book, three moments during the Obama administration play outsize roles in chastening this youthful idealism: the decision to bomb Libya in 2011, the decision not to bomb Syria in 2013, and the 2016 election.

The problem isn’t that Rice, Power, and Rhodes shade the truth to make themselves look good. To the contrary, all three are, at various points, admirably frank about their mistakes. The problem is that by refusing to reveal what happened behind closed doors, they fail to help readers understand what lessons to draw from the Libya debacle. Is the lesson that presidents who lack the stomach for nation building shouldn’t topple regimes? Is it that the United States needs greater diplomatic capacity? Is it that brutal dictatorships are better than failed states? By not explaining Libya’s lessons, liberal internationalists like Rice, Power, and Rhodes make it easier for nativist bigots like Trump to proffer a lesson of their own: that Washington should care less about people overseas, especially if they are not Christian or white.

In each, the saga of disillusionment reaches its nadir in 2016, with Russia’s electoral interference and Trump’s election. After witnessing the limits of the United States’ ability to defend democracy and human rights abroad, Rice, Power, and Rhodes realize to their horror the limits of its ability to defend those principles at home. When Obama asks Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate majority leader, to issue a joint statement condemning Russian interference in the election, McConnell refuses, a move that Rhodes calls “staggeringly partisan and unpatriotic.”

Although none of the authors puts it this way, it’s possible to read their books not only as tales of tempered idealism but also as chronicles of America’s declining exceptionalism. In retrospect, the belief in democracy promotion and humanitarian intervention that Rice, Power, and Rhodes embraced early in their careers rested on a faith that democracy was stable at home. With that faith now eroded—and the United States battling its own rising tribalism, authoritarianism, and brutality—it is hard to imagine a book like Power’sA Problem From Hell,” a critique of the country’s repeated failure to stop genocide, becoming the sensation it did in 2002.

As Americans have grown more preoccupied with, and more pessimistic about, their own country’s moral condition, they have turned inward. As a young woman, Power helped expose concentration camps in Bosnia. Today’s young activists are exposing them in Texas. As of September, foreign policy has barely figured in the Democratic presidential debates. more>

The EU’s rule-of-law test

By Tytti Tuppurainen – In his book The Origins of Political Order, the political scientist Francis Fukuyama argued that the rule of law is the most difficult pillar for a successful modern society to construct.

Organizing government administration and staging elections to a legislative body is relatively easy, and only a small number of failed states have no functioning public administration or legislature. But in far more countries, the absence of the rule of law is the primary source of instability and political decay.

For the EU, the rule of law is of central importance, because the EU is not simply a joint economic undertaking (although, as the economist Hernando de Soto has emphasized, the rule of law is also a prerequisite for a developed market economy). The EU’s raison d’être, like that of its predecessors, is to guarantee peace between European countries and to safeguard human rights within its member states. And the bloc is founded on common values enshrined in its treaties.

The EU’s commitment to the rule of law, set out in Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union, is straightforward. It stands for legality, legal certainty, the prohibition of arbitrary exercise of authority, the separation of powers, and an effective and independent judiciary. Respect for the rule of law affects different layers of society in very practical ways: at the level of the Union, the nation-state, companies, and citizens.

Within the EU, the rule of law is not a political statement or unattainable moral ideal, but a principle that public officials and courts are responsible for upholding. more>

Updates from Ciena

5G wireless needs fiber, and lots of it
When the topic of 5G wireless comes up, your first thought likely isn’t about fiber networks running under the ground. 5G mobile networks will significantly affect both the wireless side (obviously!) and the wireline side of the global network infrastructure. In fact, 5G’s formidable network performance goals are heavily predicated on the availability of fiber, and lots of it, to cell sites.
By Brian Lavallée – According to the International Telecommunications Union’s (ITU) latest “Trends in Telecommunication Reform” report, ongoing capital investments related to fiber infrastructure are expected to total a staggering $144.2B between 2014 and 2019. One of the primary drivers for this immense capital investment into fiber infrastructure deployments comes out of thin air, in the form of tomorrow’s 5G radios.

5G mobile networks will significantly affect both the wireless side (obviously!) and the wireline side of the global network infrastructure, as airborne bits jump to and from terrestrial wireline networks. In a previous post, I summarized the main aspirational performance goals of 5G, which are listed below. These formidable network performance goals are heavily predicated on the availability of fiber, and lots of it, to the cell sites.

  • Up to 1000 times increased in bandwidth, per unit area
  • Up to 100 times more connected devices
  • Up to 10Gbps connection rates to mobile devices in the field
  • A perceived network availability of 99.999%
  • A perceived 100% network coverage
  • Maximum of 1ms end-to-end round trip delay (latency)
  • Up to 90% reduction in network energy utilization

Traditionally, 2G and 3G mobile networks often used copper-based Time Division multiplexing (TDM) circuits, such as multiple bonded T1s or E1s, to connect cell sites to a nearby Mobile Switching Center over the Mobile Backhaul (MBH) network. Although this now legacy MBH architecture has indeed served the industry well for decades, it’s quickly showing its age with advent of 4G. MBH upgrades are taking place all over the world converting legacy copper-based MBH serving cell sites to packet-based transport over fiber, which enables far higher capacities to best future-proof MBH networks.

The increased adoption of 4G LTE and LTE-Advanced mobile network technology is accelerating these MBH fiber upgrades, which can and will be leveraged by future 5G networks, given the almost unlimited bandwidth that fiber-based networks offer.You can examine viable options for the road ahead with our Essentials Series guide: Mobile Backhaul. more>

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Updates from Chicago Booth

Whistle-blowers act out of a sense of morality
By Alice G. Walton – Say you witness a coworker subtly misleading a client, or rounding off sales numbers in her favor. Do you report it, or not?

Chicago Booth postdoctoral scholar James A. Dungan, Boston College’s Liane Young, and Northwestern’s Adam Waytz looked at what goes into the calculation people make when considering whether to report bad behavior. Moral concerns figure highly, they find, above employees’ feelings about their employers, fear of reprisal, and satisfaction with the recognition and rewards they receive at their job.

To understand the factors that predict the likelihood of whistle-blowing, the researchers analyzed data from more than 42,000 participants in the ongoing Merit Principles Survey, which has polled US government employees since 1979, and which covers whistle-blowing. Respondents answer questions about their past experiences with unethical behavior, the approaches they’d take in dealing with future unethical behavior, and their personal characteristics, including their concern for others and their feelings about their organizations.

Concern for others was the strongest predictor of whistle-blowing, the researchers find. This was true both of people who had already blown the whistle on bad behavior and of people who expected they might in the future.

Loyalty to an immediate community—or ingroup, in psychological terms—was also linked to whistle-blowing, but in an inverse way. “The greater people’s concern for loyalty, the less likely they were to blow the whistle,” write the researchers.

Organizational factors—such as people’s perceptions about their employer, their concern for their job, and their level of motivation or engagement—were largely unconnected to whether people spoke up. more>

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The Unwanted Wars

Why the Middle East Is More Combustible Than Ever
By Robert Malley – The war that now looms largest is a war nobody apparently wants.

A conflict could break out in any one of a number of places for any one of a number of reasons. Consider the September 14 attack on Saudi oil facilities: it could theoretically have been perpetrated by the Houthis, a Yemeni rebel group, as part of their war with the kingdom; by Iran, as a response to debilitating U.S. sanctions; or by an Iranian-backed Shiite militia in Iraq.

If Washington decided to take military action against Tehran, this could in turn prompt Iranian retaliation against the United States’ Gulf allies, an attack by Hezbollah on Israel, or a Shiite militia operation against U.S. personnel in Iraq. Likewise, Israeli operations against Iranian allies anywhere in the Middle East could trigger a regionwide chain reaction. Because any development anywhere in the region can have ripple effects everywhere, narrowly containing a crisis is fast becoming an exercise in futility.

The Middle East has become the world’s most polarized region and, paradoxically, its most integrated. That combination—along with weak state structures, powerful nonstate actors, and multiple transitions occurring almost simultaneously—also makes the Middle East the world’s most volatile region. It further means that as long as its regional posture remains as it is, the United States will be just one poorly timed or dangerously aimed Houthi drone strike, or one particularly effective Israeli operation against a Shiite militia, away from its next costly regional entanglement.

Ultimately, the question is not chiefly whether the United States should disengage from the region. It is how it should choose to engage: diplomatically or militarily, by exacerbating divides or mitigating them, and by aligning itself fully with one side or seeking to achieve a sort of balance.

Economically, it ranks among the least integrated areas of the world; institutionally, the Arab League is less coherent than the European Union, less effective than the African Union, and more dysfunctional than the Organization of American States. Nor is there any regional entity to which Arab countries and the three most active non-Arab players (Iran, Israel, and Turkey) belong.

Yet in so many other ways, the Middle East functions as a unified space. Ideologies and movements spread across borders: in times past, Arabism and Nasserism; today, political Islam and jihadism. more>

Updates from Datacenter.com

If you don’t test your back-up power, don’t expect it to work!
Datacenter.com – Last week we again conducted a black building test. This time including the power expansion which will be active soon. We always have full confidence in our black building test, but it’s good to test this regularly. After a series of power outages at various data centers, we ensure there is a power supply when you really need it.

If the power goes out for a short or long time, that is of course annoying if your favorite TV show was just on TV. But if a power outage means that your critical IT infrastructure no longer works, there are far-reaching consequences for your company. How is a power outage picked up by Datacenter.com.

For companies, organizations and governments, reliable power supply is one of the most important reasons for placing their IT equipment in a data center. Recent high-profile data center failures brought the issue of reliability to the fore. Historically, data center power cuts have been experienced by many blue-chip banks and telecoms providers, so no-one can claim immunity from such problems.

To guarantee the reliability of that power supply, we test our emergency power supply on a monthly basis. During such a test, we activate the generators to ensure the redundant power supply path works appropriately. By setting up a switch that starts our redundant set of emergency power supply, synchronizes with the mains, and delivering power to the IT equipment. During regular generator tests, the generator is putted next to the grid so the equipment that is not behind UPS remains switched on. This means that the cooling system and the lighting will continue to work during such a test. more>

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Updates from Siemens

Electrolux implements worldwide 3D factory and material flow planning
Siemens – Based in Stockholm, Sweden, Electrolux AB sells appliances for household and commer­cial use in 150 countries around the world. With around 58,000 employees and 46 pro­duction sites, the company develops and manufactures products of numerous brands: in addition to Electrolux, the top brands Grand Cuisine, AEG, Zanussi, Frigidaire and Westinghouse enjoy a particularly high reputation.

In 1996, the German AEG brand was acquired from Daimler Benz, together with several divi­sions and locations of the group. This is how the factory in Rothenburg ob der Tauber, founded in 1964, came to Electrolux, which today produces 600,000 stoves and 1,400,000 cooking ranges per year for the European market.

We attach great impor­tance to implementing in detail the essential product characteristics of each brand in development and production,” reports Bernd Ebert, director of Global Manufacturing Engineering − Food Preparation at Electrolux. Based in Rothenburg, Ebert ensures that all Electrolux cooking appliance factories imple­ment uniform processes and systems.

As part of a comprehensive digitalization strategy covering all areas, 11 digital manu­facturing projects are on the agenda of the Swedish global corporation. Ebert has assumed responsibility for two global proj­ects with the highest priority. They aim to create “digital twins” of all manufacturing sites: In the virtual manufacturing project, an advanced planning tool was selected and introduced for early design verification to develop products that are production- and assembly-friendly. For example, assembly sequences and movements will be planned and optimized three-dimensionally to pre­vent collisions. The prerequisite for this is the development of three-dimensional fac­tory layouts, which is the focus of the sec­ond project, 3D factory layout. The layouts will be created using a standard factory planning tool that can simulate both the plant and the material flow on the basis of 2D data in order to optimize capacity and efficiency.

Software selection began in 2014, when only a few had powerful software for 3D factory planning. A small, specialist team led by Ebert worked closely with the company’s IT department in Stockholm. Starting in 2015, Teamcenter from Siemens PLM Software was deployed there as a strategi­cally important product development plat­form for product lifecycle management (PLM) at Electrolux.

Discussions about Siemens’ future strategy led to an offer to test a pre-release version of the 3D layout software Line Designer in an early adopter program. more>

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