California lived through a version of this narrative two decades ago.
Some of the peripheral details are different—the California Republican in question, former Governor Pete Wilson, was not anything close to the disruptive force that Donald Trump has shown himself to be in the first year of his presidency.
But Wilson’s 1994 re-election did usher in a new era of California politics, and had long-term consequences for the California Republican Party.
In the wake of Wilson’s second term, Latinos moved overwhelmingly to the Democratic Party. Republicans also lost middle-class voters in the process, and the GOP has been relegated to the political sidelines of state politics ever since.